Long-Range Forecast Suggests Tropical Concerns for Louisiana

Louisiana's Hurricane Season 2023 has been a quiet one. At least for the near-term forecasters with the National Hurricane Center suggest things will stay that way. For the most part, any tropical systems that have formed this season have been mid-ocean storms. And while there is some comfort and solace in that knowledge, the fact is we all know "real Hurricane Season" is just starting.

That graphic details what we who live in the part of the state where the marsh and mud meet the surf and sand know as Louisiana prime time. Late July all the way through mid-October, according to history, is the most likely time for a tropical system to form and make landfall on or near the Louisiana coastline.

And as we have mentioned, there appears to be no threat looming nor is no threat expected to form in the next seven days. According to the calendar that will take us to August 16th and based on the reliable computer-based tropical models we aren't really seeing anything forming around that date either.

However, there is one long-range forecast that is published every year that seems to have an uncanny ability to predict tropical features. We have written about them before and I am sure you are familiar with The Old Farmer's Almanac. Each year that publication includes a long-range weather forecast for the various regions of the country.

According to the OFA's outlook for Louisiana, there will be a "tropical storm threat west". Which could mean a tropical entity for the Upper Texas Coast, should one actually materialize. Again, this is a long-range prediction and not an official forecast, so do take this information for what it's worth.

But if you play around with some of the computer-based long-range tropical models there does appear to be a disturbance of some kind pushing into the Gulf of Mexico on or about the 23rd of August. Does that mean a definite issue for Lake Charles, Lafayette, and the Texas coastline?

Probably not.

And if we're being honest, a tropical storm, not a hurricane, might be just what we need to quell the unGodly heat we've been experiencing and ease the increasing drought conditions across the region as well.

So, there you go. If anything The Olde Farmer's Almanac prediction is a reminder that even in the quietest hurricane seasons it only takes one storm to make it a bad year. Let's hope The Olde Farmer's Almanac is a little off in this prediction but just in case, we'll keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico for the next few weeks.