Louisiana Monday Morning Tropical Update – Latest from Overnight

It's difficult to believe the beautiful fall-like morning we are experiencing in cities such as Lafayette, Lake Charles, Crowley, and Jennings this morning will bring us a vastly different experience in a little over 48 hours. In fact, the cool and calm of this Monday morning will begin to be replaced with a threat of rain by as early as this evening as a developing tropical system approaches the southwestern coast of Louisiana.

As of the 0400 am CDT advisory on Potential Tropical Storm Six forecasters were still not seeing enough development to warrant transitioning the system to a full-blown tropical storm. That will happen later today, so don't be surprised when you hear the system referred to as Francine.

What is the Latest on the Storm?

The statistics on the storm as of the 0400 update showed the maximum sustained winds were clocked at 50 mph. The storm's center of circulation was 535 miles south of Cameron Louisiana. The movement of the system was to the North northwest at 5 mph. Because of its elongated circulation, the Hurricane Center has not designated it as a Tropical Storm yet.

But it's a pretty sure bet that once the storm has achieved Tropical Storm Status you will see watches and warnings posted for the Upper Texas Coast and the coastline of Southwestern Louisiana.

Below is the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

As you can see the projected landfall according to this forecast is eerily close to where the hurricanes of 2020, Laura and Delta made landfall. This system would be significantly weaker than either of those two storms but still will bring threats to life and property in the form of storm surge, heavy rain and flash flooding, and potential wind damage.

What Do the Latest Tropical Models Suggest?

Most reliable tropical models agree that this system will directly hit the Louisiana coast. You can see a compilation of those model solutions here. The intensity of the storm is a little more up in the air at this juncture.

Forecasters say there is a potential that the strengthening of the system could be inhibited by slightly drier air as it nears the Louisiana coastline. Some of the models also suggest wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere might keep the storm system from strengthening as well.

How Much Rainfall Is Possible With This Tropical System?

The basic synopsis from the Weather Prediction Center suggests that anywhere from Lake Charles to New Orleans and as far north as Alexandria should expect to see four to six inches of rain. Depending on where the center of circulation passes over the state those rainfall totals could be as high as twelve inches.

The graphic above illustrates where forecasters feel even higher rainfall totals could occur. The potential for flash flooding and storm surge along the coast will prompt watches and warnings as early as this afternoon.

Since outside weather conditions across South Louisiana will be good today, now is the time to begin your outside preparations. It would be a good idea to pick up loose items, lawn furniture, and decorations from your yard and make sure they are secured. Basically, anything the wind can blow will need to be brought in or tied down.

The National Hurricane Center offers complete forecast updates on the tropics every six hours at 4 am, 10 am, 4 pm, and 10 pm Central Daylight Time.

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