Tropical Soaker Looming for Louisiana Next Week

The National Weather Service still has Flood Watches posted for portions of Louisiana early this morning. Much of the I-10 corridor of the state, which includes Lafayette, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans has been inundated with soaking rains for the past couple of days.

Fortunately, a quick step outside this Saturday morning will confirm that a cold front has made it's way through the state. That will at least keep Mother Nature's "faucet" turned off for a couple of days. But by Tuesday, the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles is suggesting another flooding threat.

The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center. The good news is the number of potential tropical disturbances has diminished. The bad news is the one that's left is in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast track models suggest this system will play a major role in Louisiana and Texas weather by late Monday into Tuesday.

The Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% probability of strengthening into at least a tropical depression over the next seven days. Some of the online computer models suggest something a little stronger.

As you can see there is a huge disparity in those model runs. Some of them predict a stronger storm. Some of them predict a much weaker system. The track guidance is very widespread. These are model projections and not official forecasts. We offer them as a point of reference.

The Official National Weather Service Forecast for South Louisiana can be found here. One thing we can glean from the model projections and the official forecast is that it's going to rain and it's going to rain a lot over southern Louisiana and the upper Texas coast next week.

Rain chances ramp up Monday afternoon and there is a large probability for heavy rain during the day on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  The amount of rain will be determined by the potential tropical system as it approaches the coast. Assuming, it doesn't dissipate along the way. That's a possibility too.

Enjoy the wonderful weekend weather today and tomorrow. Conditions will be changing next week. You know, it might be a good idea to check the storm drains, ditches, coulees, and even your gutters for leaves and debris from this week's storms.

The National Hurricane Center will issue its next tropical update around 0700 Central Daylight Time, they usually post it earlier though. You can view the latest from NHC, right here.