Tropical Threat in the Gulf – Hurricane Center Revises Outlook
In my heart of hearts, I do believe it was the power of prayer that spared Lafayette, Louisiana from a similar fate at the hands of Hurricane Lili that Lake Charles experienced with Hurricane Laura, and New Orleans experienced with Hurricane Katrina.
It was 22 years ago on this day, October 3rd that Hurricane Lili made landfall on Louisiana's Gulf Coast. The landfall was just to the south and west of the city of Lafayette. This put Lafayette on the "bad side" of the storm and could have meant storm surge waters as far north as I-10. But, that didn't happen.
You see Hurricane Lili, less than 48 hours away from landfall was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. By the time the storm crossed the coast, it had been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. Meteorologists say it was because of a "tongue of dry air" that disrupted the system. I believe it was tens of thousands of faithful Louisiana residents praying their collective asses off that made the difference.
Fast forward twenty-two years to the year 2024 and once again Louisiana's coastal residents are watching "something" in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has been watching as well. Earlier this week forecasters and tropical model solutions suggested that a tropical cyclone was imminent by this weekend or early next week.
The Hurricane Center expected an area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to get more organized and move into the Gulf of Mexico. And while it does appear that an area of disturbed weather is now in the south-central Gulf, it doesn't appear as if the storm system will "get organized".
Above is the latest graphic from the NHC. The "yellow-hashed" area is where the disturbed weather will be over the next seven days. If you've been following the progress of this storm system you know that just a couple of days ago that hashed area was orange, suggesting a greater threat.
Forecasters have dropped the probability of an area of disturbed weather getting organized into a tropical depression or stronger from 40% to 30% over the next seven days. Tropical forecast models also suggest that the system will face a hostile environment for development by early next week when a strong cold front pushes through Louisiana and into the Gulf of Mexico.
What Does This Mean for Louisiana's Weather Next Week?
We are not to the point where we can totally dismiss this area of disturbed weather and just move on. It still will require monitoring but you can breathe a lot easier and not be as concerned about needing an umbrella for high school or college football games this weekend.
Now the forecast is a lot different if you travel a hundred or so miles to the east of Lafayette. The New Orleans area has a much higher rain threat beginning later today through Friday. Rain chances in and around the Big Easy will be 60% tonight and 50% tomorrow. But the rain threat should drop off significantly by Saturday.
By the middle of next week, our tropical troubles should be pushed out of the Gulf by the aforementioned cold front. No, this doesn't mean Louisiana is out of the woods for the rest of the hurricane season. It does give us a chance to catch our breath and maybe make a donation to those people in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas who are still hurting after Hurricane Helene. Here's a link if you want help.
Louisiana's Quirkiest Festivals
Gallery Credit: Joe Cunningham