Tuesday Tropical Update – Francine’s Track Adjusted Again

If Louisiana had a tropical version of the game Bingo there is no doubt that a sighting of iconic storm chaser Jim Cantore would be a square that everyone would want to have. Jim and his team have been in Lafayette, Louisiana for the past several hours. However, we did get a report that "Storm Bae" as Jim is sometimes called had changed his position to a location south and east of Lafayette in preparation for Francine's arrival.

Professional meteorologists such as Jim Cantore, Acadiana's own Rob Perillo, and Good Morning America's Ginger Zee have one mission in mind when it comes to the tropics. They want you to be safe. And unfortunately for us to get that message through our hard heads, sometimes they have to put themselves in harm's way.

In this case, the "harm" that is headed "this way" is a tropical cyclone that was given the name Francine a little more than 24 hours ago. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring Francine since it was a whisper of a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic. Francine is now a powerful tropical cyclone and based on NHC forecasts has its sights set on landfall in Louisiana.

Yesterday, Hurricane Hunters were able to finally distinguish a true center of circulation for the cyclone. That discovery resulted in a rather large shift to the west compared to where forecasters originally thought the center of circulation was located. This shift created other westerly shifts in the tropical forecast models.

Why A Few Miles Matter With Landfalling Hurricanes

Current statistics on Francine suggest that 50-knot winds extend outward from the center of circulation for only 20 nautical miles in the northeastern quadrant, 30 nautical miles in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and 40 nautical miles in the southwestern quadrant. As you can see, a shift of 50 miles in the track of the system could change weather conditions drastically from one location to the next.

How Has The Track of Francine Shifted Overnight?

The most recent model runs at 0000z (that's 6 pm Louisiana time) seemed to suggest the model guidance was suggesting an easterly shift in the storm's track. That suggestion was backed up by the model runs that happened at midnight Louisiana time. Perhaps that is why Jim Cantore has moved eastward.

Regardless of what the models say, the only word you need to be paying close attention to when it comes to hurricanes and tropical storms belongs to the National Hurricane Center. Here is what the NCH 0400 CDT revised track looks like.

Francine 0400 AM Advisory Details:

The maximum sustained winds were 65 mph. The center of circulation was located 415 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana. The motion of the storm was to the north-northwest at 5 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the storm's center of circulation. Forecasters do believe Francine will become a hurricane and grow stronger as it moves toward the Louisiana coastline over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Almost the entire Louisiana coastline remains under a hurricane warning. The parishes that are just north of the coast, many of them have tropical storm warnings ahead of the approaching Francine.

In tropical weather lore, there is an old saying "Hide from the wind, run from the water". Many residents of coastal Louisiana should consider running from the water ahead of Francine. Storm Surge warnings have been posted and the amount of rain projected to fall over the southern half of the state could be historic.

The Weather Prediction Center, who provided the data for the graphic above and the graphic below suggests that in addition to voluminous amounts of rain falling over a short period of time. There could be some aggregate totals approaching one foot across much of the area from Lafayette to New Orleans.

Naturally, this is a fluid situation and the forecast as well as weather conditions across southern Louisiana will be changing rapidly over the next 24 to 36 hours. We suggest you take care of any hurricane preparations that you have remaining during the day today. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly during the day on Wednesday until the storm has passed.