Tropics – Four Areas of Concern Being Monitored for Development
The 2020 Hurricane Season continues to fire up and roll on despite our wishes that it would just end and go away. Forecasters are monitoring four different systems that could develop further over the next five days. Fortunately, most of those areas of concern are well out to sea.
The one exception to the storm situation is an area of disturbed weather that's about 400 miles east of the Carolinas. This system is just an area of showers and thunderstorms and a few gusty breezes right now. But as it moves westward toward the coast, it could develop into a tropical depression. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are only giving it a 30% probability to do that over the next five days.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Rene has been downgraded to a tropical depression. That system is forecast to re-strengthen later today. It is forecast to become a hurricane by the end of the week. Fortunately, it should remain well out to sea and avoid any major landmass.
Tropical Storm Paulette is also a little weaker this morning. That storm system is several hundred miles east of Rene's location. Forecasters do not suggest that Paulette will become a hurricane as it is moving into a heavy wind shear environment that could inhibit its ability to strengthen. It too is forecast to remain out to sea.
The fourth entity is not even in the ocean yet. It's a tropical wave that is expected to emerge off the coast of Equatorial Africa over the next day or so. When it does, it is expected to strengthen quite rapidly once it is over water. Forecasters give this system an 80% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days. Where this system will track has yet to be determined but it is as far across the ocean as it can possibly be, let's hope it stays that way.
The Gulf of Mexico is quiet this morning and no tropical development in the Gulf is expected over the next five days.