Hurricane Center Eyeing Potential Tropical Trouble Spots
Following the landfall of Hurricane Delta last Friday, the tropical Atlantic Basin has been kind of quiet. Okay, it's been incredibly quiet when you compare the past few days with the very active and raucous hurricane season we've experienced this year. In 2020 Louisiana's coastline has been affected by seven tropical entities. Could number eight be lurking in the waters of the Caribbean by this time next week?
As of now, the National Hurricane Center is officially watching Invest93L That's the area of disturbed weather you see moving over the eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea this morning. That system is expected to encounter hostile conditions for development and the Hurricane Center is only giving it a 10% chance of growing stronger.
Many of the long-range tropical models do push this system off to the north and don't seem to suggest that this will become a problem, even down the road, for Louisiana. We can't confidently say that for at least one of the other two systems the Hurricane Center is watching.
In the mid-Atlantic near Bermuda, there is another area of concern. It's a broad area of low pressure and it's expected to drift to the south and west over the next few days. The chances for development on this system are still very low, 20%, over the next five days and it does not look to be a player in the Gulf either.
That brings us to that third potential system in the southwest Caribbean Sea. This part of the ocean is a literal hotbed for tropical development this time of year. Based on just tropical history this area needs to be watched. The Hurricane Center is doing so and they are giving this system a 20% chance to strengthen over the next five days.
Some long-range forecast models do pick this system up in some of the ten and fourteen-day forecasts so we will keep a close eye on this for development. Granted, it's not a guarantee that this system will become the next named storm, it certainly could. The system, should it develop further would be an area of the ocean where storms that affected Louisiana earlier this year were born. That's kind of ominous, isn't it?
Regardless, there is nothing imminent. There is nothing to raise your anxiety level about. There is a lot of "wait and see" which we will do. We'll watch, you wait, and we will keep you ahead of the storm. Let's hope we don't have to, right?