Hurricane Center Monitoring Additional Development in the Gulf

The National Hurricane Center's forecast department is taking a page from Louisiana's used car dealers. As far as the Gulf of Mexico and tropical storm development is concerned, the NHC is "stacking them deep". No, we don't know about selling the cheap, but we do know there is another area of concern in the Gulf of Mexico besides the system currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

First things first, let's get you caught up on PTC One. The graphic below is from the National Hurricane Center and it shows the projected track of that storm system. As you can see a landfall is expected in northern Mexico. At the time of landfall, the system is expected to have achieved Tropical Storm status. If it does, it would earn the name Alberto.

The effects of PTC One/Alberto on Louisiana are expected to be minimal. The state has already experienced an increase in tropical moisture and tropical showers spawned by the system but not much more than that is really projected for Louisiana. And as the system eventually moves onshore the threat of rain and storms spawned by it should decrease.

Meanwhile, if you look at the graphic below also from the National Hurricane Center you can see the yellow shading beneath the "Red X". The "X" is PTC One but the yellow shading suggests another tropical system could be forming in that same area of the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.

Current early weather model runs suggest a similar fate for that system if it develops at all. Right now the Hurricane Center is only suggesting a 30% probability of tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days. Of course, with sea surface water temps as warm as they are any system that does form in the Gulf will have the potential to strengthen. But as of now, that system appears to be more of a rainmaker for south Texas and Mexico next week.