Updated Timing For Louisiana’s Storm Threat Monday

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are keeping a close eye on Louisiana this Monday morning. Both the Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center have all or at least some Louisiana locations under their microscope for the potential of flooding rains and severe storms as we move through this Monday, November 18th.

The good news for residents of Acadiana who were inundated with historic rainfall last week it doesn't appear as though another major rainfall event is shaping up for the area today. That doesn't mean portions of Louisiana won't see significant downpours it's just that the rainfall totals aren't expected to be as large nor the accumulation expected to mount up nearly as fast as was experienced in last Wednesday's storms.

Radar scans from Dallas/Fort Worth show a large area of rain and embedded heavy thunderstorms rumbling across North Texas and Oklahoma. That storm system is expected to push rapidly eastward toward Louisiana today. However, given the current distance, it will still take some 10 to 12 hours to arrive.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state at risk for severe weather today. Louisiana is in the "marginal" risk category while locations further west into Texas are expected to experience heavier storms and a greater threat of severe weather.

As the storm system moves across Louisiana later today and especially tonight, the threat of severe storms will move eastward along with the storm system. For Tuesday, portions of southeastern Louisiana could still be at risk for severe storms.

The other threat associated with the current weather scenario is flash flooding caused by excessive rains. An excessive rainfall event is when the rainfall rate exceeds the drainage rate for a given area. In last Wednesday's storms rainfall rates of two to three inches per hour persisted over areas that weren't designed to drain that much water in such a short period of time.

The Weather Prediction Center is the agency that forecasts rainfall potential and this morning they've adjusted the potential for flooding rains to include even more of Louisiana. The greatest threat for flash flooding will likely come later tonight across southeastern Louisiana. It appears as though Baton Rouge and New Orleans as well as the Mississippi Gulf Coast could see the heavier downpours.

As the area we've just described is noted to be at a slight risk for excessive rain we should note that almost all of the rest of Louisiana's I-10 Corridor could see significant rainfall over a short period of time today too. The area of "marginal" risk includes Lafayette, New Iberia, Opelousas, Crowley, Youngsville, and Jennings.

The timing of today's showers and storms has slowed just a little when compared to yesterday's forecast. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles is suggesting showers and storms will make their presence known after 4 pm in the Lafayette area. The timing will be a little earlier for Lake Charles, and a little later for Baton Rouge.

The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall and strongest storms will likely come several hours later, perhaps after sundown. Forecasters are suggesting a risk of flooding rains and potentially severe storms could remain in the area until 2 am on Tuesday.

The remainder of the work week should be rather quiet with much cooler temperatures moving into the area by Wednesday morning. Louisiana could experience some of its coldest temperatures of the season on Thursday and there will be a slight warm-up as we move closer to next weekend.

For Thanksgiving travel plan on showers and storms, at least the possibility of them on Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day is looking to be mostly sunny and seasonable but showers and storms should return to the area as holiday travelers make their way home over the weekend.