Will ‘Tropical Disturbance’ in Gulf Bring Louisiana Needed Rain?

Lawncare providers in Louisiana near Lafayette, Crowley, Church Point, and Rayne aren't doing as much mowing these days as they are "dusting" area lawns. The extreme heat of the Summer of 2023 and the worsening drought conditions, especially in these areas of South Louisiana are not contributing to the growing of grass.

And for the weekend warrior who would much rather spend time in the air conditioning watching the upcoming football season unfold that cutting grass that might seem like good news. It's not. We need rain. For some of the Louisiana communities we've noted above, we've actually gone beyond "needing rain", it's almost now a battle of life and death as far as lawns and landscapes and some of our state's most important cash crops are concerned.

The state's shining savior from the drought and dust could be an area of disturbed weather that is supposed to be moving into the central and western Gulf of Mexico next week. Right now, the thinking from the National Hurricane Center suggests the system will not spin up into a tropical cyclone. However, this is August and we know to expect the unexpected as far as the tropics are concerned.

Will a Tropical System in the Gulf of Mexico Break Louisiana's Drought Conditions?

Are you ready for the most noncommital answer to that question we can create? The best answer that we found after searching through long-range forecast models and trusted meteorological sites we have deduced the answer to that question is "maybe".

There seems to be no collective school of thought on how that area of disturbed weather, depicted in the graphic from the National Hurricane Center, will or won't affect Louisiana's forecast. The problem is the heat dome or large high-pressure system that has been ruling our weather for the past month.

There doesn't appear to be any steering current that will move that large system out of the way to make way for other weather makers. The only hope for an increased rain threat across the area is for that heat dome to weaken. If it does that might allow the tropical weather to inch close enough to Louisiana's coastline to bring much-needed rainfall.

As of now, the extended outlook from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles is putting a 50% chance of rain across southern Louisiana on Monday. The threat of showers will linger Monday night and still be there for Tuesday. The rain chances taper off after that.

Accu-Weather another very well-respected forecast outlet is having none of that "rain stuff". Their extended outlook for south Louisiana is dry and hot with not even a whisper of a chance of a shower.

The Weather Channel's extended outlook does include a threat of showers and storms for Monday and Tuesday of next week but their forecast isn't nearly as robust with those chances as the National Weather Service Forecast projects.

KATC-Television in Lafayette, Louisiana is actually leaning toward a better chance of rain across the Acadiana area beginning Monday. But Rob Perillo and crew, at least as of this morning, have the more robust chances of rain forecast for Tuesday instead of Monday.

Obviously, weather forecasts lose accuracy the further out they are extended. So, we'll watch and see what happens in the Gulf and if that will affect you. We should have a much better handle on exactly what we will or won't be dealing with by Saturday.